@Article{Lima-RibeiroMoTeCaLoRaDi:2017:FoReIm,
author = "Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S. and Moreno, Ana Karolina M. and
Terribile, Levi and Caten, Cl{\'e}ber T. and Loyola, Rafael and
Rangel, Thiago F. and Diniz Filho, Jos{\'e} Alexandre F.",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade
Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de
Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade
Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)}",
title = "Fossil record improves biodiversity risk assessment under future
climate change scenarios",
journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
year = "2017",
volume = "23",
number = "8",
pages = "922--933",
month = "Aug.",
keywords = "conservation palaeobiology, ecological niche modelling, extinction
risk, habitat tracking, jaguar (Panthera onca), multitemporal
calibration, protected area effectiveness.",
abstract = "AimConservationists have been using ecological niche modelling
(ENM) to understand how climate change impacts species, estimate
their extinction risk and assess species conservation status in
the future. However, most ENMs are built using just current
species occurrences. As short-term observations are naturally
biased and incomplete in both geographical and climate spaces,
palaeontologists have recommended the use of fossil data to
improve species vulnerability assessments. Here, we used a time
structured data set of the jaguar Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758)
to test the implications of fossil data on distinct distribution
dynamics and conservation status predicted by ENMs under future
climate change scenarios. LocationThe New World. MethodsWe built
two classes of ENMs, (i) using only current occurrences of P.onca
and (ii) combining current and fossil information. Models were
then projected onto current and future climates. ResultsNiche
models calibrated using fossil data broadly predicted more
optimistic conservation statuses, with larger suitable areas for
the species in the future, which are geographically nearest to its
current distribution and better represented within protected areas
(current network of protected areas will hold significant suitable
areas). Main conclusionsFossils provided complementary information
about different climate conditions that species experienced though
time and filled empty spaces in currently unoccupied fundamental
niche. Our analyses reinforce the idea the fossil record is a
valuable source of alternative information to increase the
reliability of ENMs when assessing biodiversity risk. Combining
ecological and palaeontological data for niche modelling increase
our understanding about species responses to changing climates.
Consequently, it potentially improves our knowledge on how to
manage biodiversity by more reliably anticipating the effects of
climate change and proactivelyrather than reactivelyplanning
conservation actions over longer periods going forward.",
doi = "10.1111/ddi.12575",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12575",
issn = "1366-9516",
language = "en",
targetfile = "lima_fossil.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}